My comment about Brexit

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 15:30:07 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]The way I look at it, and the question I have always asked friends and family who are leave voters is - what is SO bad about your current way of life that you are prepared to risk the status quo for something completely uncertain[/quote]

I sort of more than half agree with you ... that was pretty much the same question I asked myself before voting 'remain' in the referendum. Specifically, I liked the idea of more control over our destiny, but nobody could give me any idea of the price, and I don't buy anything without having some idea of the price.

Ideologically, though, I am a Brexiter. I would very much like to leave. But I agree with you, the Brexit campaign has been characterised by a complete lack of 'vision' or plan.

I'm not sure, though, if my desire to leave would be any more or less if there was a plan. What i mean by that is I don't need a plan to show me that we will have a stronger, more accountable, more responsive democracy than in the EU, either as it is now, or (very importantly) as it continues in the direction of having greater and greater political influence in our national life.

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 15:04:18 GMT

Not really Arlo. The way I look at it, and the question I have always asked friends and family who are leave voters is - what is SO bad about your current way of life that you are prepared to risk the status quo for something completely uncertain, something for which there is no plan, and something for which most 'experts' agree will be detrimental? I have yet to receive an answer.

"Yes but the laws that are 'imposed' upon us by 'unelected bureaucrats' they say.. "Which laws? - Specifically which laws have been imposed upon you that are making your life so unbearable?" - again, tumbleweed.

Now, if the brexiteers had said "We want the nation to vote whether or not to leave the EU, and here is our plan for if the vote is in favour.." and I had a chance to look at, and consider that plan, again, I may even have voted to leave. But there was no plan. There still isn't. It's utter madness.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 10:21:35 GMT

Wow!

What I infer from that is that you see no benefit to leaving the EU whatsoever, and therefore I presume there is no price you would be prepared to pay.

Fair enough, but it doesn't leave much if any room for negotiation with you!

For me, I think a) is the most important thing; I see real benefits in a stronger democracy, both socially and economically.

b) I am a little more relaxed about, although I do not much like the idea of a superstate and its army.

Point c) is not just about being overrun, though the country is a far more congested than I remember as a child. It's also about the tensions in communities caused by having change forced upon them, the lack of integration and the greater demands on shared resources. I do not believe that is a construct of the right wing press - you only have to drive through certain parts of the country to see how they have been almost overtaken by immigrants. I'm a third gen immigrant myself, so I have nothing against immigration per se. It's the speed and the amount of it that bothers me.

Anyway, if you were forced to look for the positives in leaving the EU, can you think of any?

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 09:50:50 GMT

Regarding point a - no, I don't think that our own politicians will do any better - in fact, looking at the state of them, I wouldn't trust any of them to even boil an egg.

Point b - doesn't bother me in the slightest, actually I think we have a pretty strong national identity under the EU anyway, same as all the other EU member states.

Point c - I hardly think we are, or are in danger of becoming overrun. I think that such a fear has been successfully manufactured by the right wing press. Free movement inside the EU is not completely unrestricted.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 09:32:45 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]Well if and when the times comes that I need assistance with wiping my arse, I don't give two hoots whether the person that does it comes from an EU country, a Commonwealth country or Turkmenistan!

..And I can't see why it's a big deal to anyone else.[/quote]

Bottom wiping was just a euphemism for jobs nobody wants to do, and my point is just that I think it is completely unsustainable to keep importing low paid workers to do the jobs that the British have decided are beneath them, whether it be bottom-wiping, fruit-picking, cleaning, road-sweeping or whatever.

And yes, I know that in the short term, immigrants contribute to the economy. That's not my point. My point is that as a small island, we have finite resources.

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]If someone knows British business better than the Trades Union Congress and the Confederation of British Industry and can explain how we will be better off, I would be prepared to change my mind. But they haven't.[/quote]

Seems to me that the biggest reason why most remainers wish to remain is the economy. Personally, I think we will be better off in the long term being outside the EU, but I am no economist and I might very easily be wrong.

Still, can I ask whether you would agree, James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN that outside the EU, we would enjoy the following benefits:

a) enjoy a stronger, more accountable, more responsive democracy, which can adapt faster to socio-techno changes.

b) retain a stronger national identity, rather than being homogenised within a superstate

c) whatever your stance on immigration, benefit from being able to control the numbers of people living on this relatively small island.

And if you do agree, then the question is really what you would be prepared to pay for those benefits? What economic hit would be acceptable?

As to the Irish border issue - one idea I've heard proposed is that we simply do not impose tariffs on products incoming from the EU. Then we don't need a border and the problem is thrown back at the EU. In other words, if they want a border, that's their lookout.

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Mon, 22 Apr 2019 15:24:10 GMT

I am not entrenched at all. If somebody could show me some decent indication that it would be in our national interest to leave the EU, I would absolutely be willing to change my position - but the fact is, almost everything that the Brexiteers had promised has turned out to be utterly bogus.

If someone knows British business better than the Trades Union Congress and the Confederation of British Industry and can explain how we will be better off, I would be prepared to change my mind. But they haven't.

If someone can propose a sensible solution to the Irish border issue, I might change my mind - but they haven't.

The 2 years of shilly shallying have not occurred because of any delay tactics on the part of the remainers - it is because we were promised something that was impossible to deliver.

I have never accused anyone of being racist but I find it curious how quickly leave voters often are to establish that point. Regarding your point about our demographics, it's also curiously ironic that this will likely have a far greater negative impact on those in the North than those of us here in the South East.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Sal the 1st — Mon, 22 Apr 2019 11:10:03 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]

Lastly, immigration is one aspect of the debate behind the decision whether or not to leave the EU - there are plenty of others, arguably of far greater importance.

[/quote]

On that point we will agree - it is about a lot more than immigration- it is a very small part . When you look at it our differences are a reflection of the whole Brexit problem. We both live very different lives in very different communities. I am sorry you find me patronising but whereas I am prepared to examine differing views and make allowances you are entrenched, you refuse to budge until you get your way and in doing so name call those wanting to exit by insinuating they are racist or stupid. If people just like you and me could come to some agreement then this whole mess would have been resolved long ago but as things stand 2 years have been wasted while delay tactics have been set up time and time again. The time could have been used constructively - it wasn't, so instead of ending up with a Brexit that could have been to some benefit to both sides we end up with this.

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]

I just stopped subscribing to an 'us and them' mentality a long time ago.

[/quote]

But I will take issue with this - because this is exactly what you are still doing

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Mon, 22 Apr 2019 05:59:36 GMT

Really aren't getting this? Don't be patronising! I just stopped subscribing to an 'us and them' mentality a long time ago. Can't believe I'm now getting into a crass debate on immigration but hey it's 6 in the morning and my work is just about finished so..

Far more money going out than coming in?

The average UK-based migrant from Europe contributed approximately £2,300 more to UK public finances in 2016/17 than the average UK adult. In comparison, each UK born adult contributed £70 less than the average, and each non-European migrant contributed over £800 less than the average.
The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.
Taken together, this means that the migrants who arrived in 2016 will make a total net positive contribution of £26.9 billion to the UK’s public finances over the entirety of their stay. The value of this to the UK’s public finances is equivalent to putting approximately 5p on income tax rates (across all marginal rate bands) in that year.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Also, immigration has not been shown to have a significant effect on British unemployment.

Interestingly, the word 'Mass' was the word most commonly used to describe immigration by the British media between 2006 - 2015 (Oxford Uni, The Migration Observatory 2016) - it's no wonder people feel this way thanks to the likes of the Daily Heil and the ever hateful Daily Express.

Lastly, immigration is one aspect of the debate behind the decision whether or not to leave the EU - there are plenty of others, arguably of far greater importance.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Sal the 1st — Sat, 20 Apr 2019 16:00:36 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]

Well if and when the times comes that I need assistance with wiping my arse, I don't give two hoots whether the person that does it comes from an EU country, a Commonwealth country or Turkmenistan!

[/quote]

And that is assuming anybody would want to

You really aren't getting this Jimbo - to simplify -if we continue to attract hoards of low income immigrants then the contributions paid into the pot will be low. When they retire , as has already been pointed out by Arlo, they will be entitled to state support We have a surfeit of low income workers as it is and that isn't even counting those people that sponge off the system for everything and never do a days work - and note race doesn't come into this. There is far more money going out than is coming in. I am worried about what happens when I stop working and how I will survive and lets face it I will be at retiring age a lot sooner than you will. Carry on as we are doing and there will certainly be bugger all left for you, your children or anybody elses. You might be happy to keep things as they are but over half of the population voted for change.

I notice in your last comment about backside wiping you mention EU, Commonwealth or Turkmenistan but you don't mention UK -and their really is no reason why UK couldn't provide its own wipers - except that is that many of them sponging off the state (how shall I put it?) can't be arsed.

And you think I'm racist? but you have no qualms about encouraging people into the country to carry out crap jobs that nobody else wants to do, that pay the minimum just because some of our own find it beneath them - and I thought slavery had been abolished? Maybe we should bring back National Service and get some of these chronic non workers earning a living instead of drawing one? but hell I forgot if we stay in the EU that will probably happen anyway

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Sat, 20 Apr 2019 06:44:49 GMT

Well if and when the times comes that I need assistance with wiping my arse, I don't give two hoots whether the person that does it comes from an EU country, a Commonwealth country or Turkmenistan!

..And I can't see why it's a big deal to anyone else.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Wed, 17 Apr 2019 09:09:44 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]Under the EU we do / did have a say on immigration.[/quote]

Huh? Under the EU, we have to allow complete freedom of movement for anyone in the EU:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_workers_in_the_European_Union

That necessarily restricts how many we can allow from other parts of the world. The last time I looked, they were capped at 20,700 (https://www.personneltoday.com/hr/tier-2-visas-cap-still-being-reached-despite-medical-staff-exemption/).

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 15:39:49 GMT

Under the EU we do / did have a say on immigration.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 15:05:58 GMT

[quote user="molladog"]Hmmmm, petrol seems to have shot up in price for no apparent reason ????[/quote]

My electric toothbrush started stuttering this morning. I'm sure Brexit's to blame.

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]OK well here's a fact - the European veterinary colleagues who I have worked with have without exception said to me that this has made them feel very unwelcome.[/quote]

It's inevitable that if you cast doubt on someone's ability to live and work here, they are going to feel less welcome than when there was an open door policy.

Like you, I am uncomfortable with the idea of appearing unwelcoming.

But however uncomfortable it makes me feel, I am MORE uncomfortable with the idea of importing more and more people into this country, to do the jobs we don't want to do (which is largely wiping old people's bottoms).

That strikes me as completely unsustainable. What happens when the people who have come here to wipe old people's bottoms get old themselves? They they'll need their bottoms wiping. It is all one great big bottom-wiping ponzi scheme!

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]This whole thing, whichever way it goes has lifted the lid on a festering stew of nastiness boiling just under the lid of our nation's people. [/quote]

Has it? Genuine question. I live a slightly cloistered existence these days, because I have a chronically sick daughter who stops us getting out much!

I have read about relatively isolated reports of increased racism, but not yet (and hopefully not ever) a 'festering stew of nastiness'.

In fact, that is one thing I find so frustrating about people positioning 'leavers' as racist. I am ideologically a leaver. But I certainly don't consider myself a racist. I just think that 'free, unfettered movement of people' is idealistic, and should be replaced by 'ease of movement'.

In other words, I love the polish, the spanish, the germans, even the french . I just think we should be able to control how many come to live here. And we should not discriminate against those from Commonwealth countries, as our membership of the EU forces us to do.

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 14:23:47 GMT

OK well here's a fact - the European veterinary colleagues who I have worked with have without exception said to me that this has made them feel very unwelcome.

This whole thing, whichever way it goes has lifted the lid on a festering stew of nastiness boiling just under the lid of our nation's people. That cannot now be undone.

All I can say to European friends and colleagues is that it's not in my name.

RE: My comment about Brexit

molladog — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 10:13:36 GMT

Hmmmm, petrol seems to have shot up in price for no apparent reason ????

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 10:01:34 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]..but sadly belief is not fact. I want expert opinion before I make a decision.[/quote]

Yeah, but James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN, if I can paraphrase you, sadly expert opinion is also not fact!

Let's not forget that it was expert opinion that forecast we would already be in a recession by now as a result of Brexit.

Let's not forget that 'experts' (by which I mean virtually all economists, plus the Treasury, argued that if we left the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, interest rates and inflation would go up, and the economy would be damaged.

The reverse proved to be true.

A similar thing happened over the discussion as to whether or not we should join the Euro. Economists all said it would damage our economy if we were not in the Euro. It hasn't.

Let's not forget that there are experts who forecast that Brexit will be a positive thing: https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"](..But there again we live in era where people are 'tired of experts' and every opinion is given equal merit regardless of the process by which it was formed)[/quote]

I agree that the whole 'tired of experts' thing is dangerous and wrong. But I do think opinions have a different value depending on the subject area. For example, my doctor's opinion, or my dentist's opinion, or my vet's opinion for that matter is valuable because it is largely based on fact. An economist's opinion of the future, on the other hand, is about as valuable as that of a fortune teller.

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 09:51:41 GMT

Of course I don't know exactly how it will pan out (I have my suspicions, as does everyone else - not least the eventual break up of the UK since Scotland and NI both wanted to stay. If it happens, I reckon we'll end up with no UK, just a colony of angry little red-faced Englanders blaming everyone but themselves)

But as I said before, looking at what business leaders (not politicians) say, speculations of financial / economic hardship prevail. If anyone can find some economic forecast that shows us to be better of leaving the EU, I would be most interested to see it.

The thing is, we're already worse-off as a result of it and it hasn't even happened yet, so arguments in favour are very rapidly losing what little credibility they had in the first place.

"If we are honest, we Brexiteers have to admit that the economic arguments for Brexit have been destroyed by a series of shattering blows.

The leading Brexiteers argued during the 2016 campaign that the British economy had been held back by membership of the EU and would survive and flourish on its own. That argument is now unsustainable.

Investment-led growth has collapsed, and we need to stare that undeniable fact squarely in the face."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/?fbclid=IwAR3stHgnDu9-5gE_1cmFxwl6EtWuC0zdzP3qDeRbqr2wsbyOWi6OMvJwjLI

RE: My comment about Brexit

Sal the 1st — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 08:50:32 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]

I want expert opinion before I make a decision.

[/quote]

Oh I'm sorry, maybe I misunderstood .I thought you had made a decision - you decided to remain. Nobody, not you or I or anybody else knows exactly how this is going to pan out. It is all speculation on what could happen. Unless you are privy to information that nobody else has - if so maybe you would find it an act of charity to share.

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Tue, 16 Apr 2019 08:39:49 GMT

..but sadly belief is not fact. I want expert opinion before I make a decision. If I want to know how it's likely to pan out financially, I listen to what the business leaders say - the people who know what they are talking about. And what they have said is pretty unanimous. (..But there again we live in era where people are 'tired of experts' and every opinion is given equal merit regardless of the process by which it was formed).

Gove, Johnson, Rees-Mogg - they have been wrong about just about everything they have said. Time and time again. Yet people are still doffing their caps to these idiots and listening to what they have to say.

And the 100million you quote for splashing out on the Euro elections is nothing compared to how much has already been p**d up the wall on this monumental screw up. One single example being that ferry company that was awarded a 13.8million pound contract for the event of a no deal exit, and turned out not to actually own any ferries, so the contract was cancelled.

The EU are not responsible for our problems - our home grown idiots are managing just fine by themselves.

Revoke and Remain!

RE: My comment about Brexit

Sal the 1st — Mon, 15 Apr 2019 19:25:30 GMT

[quote user="Arlo Guthrie"]

He felt that those countries that are able to legislate quickly (as we would if we were outside the EU) will have a competitive advantage. We need to be making our own decisions rather than waiting for somebody else to make them on our behalf

[/quote]

This is also my belief also. Its a pity the 100million we are about to splash on the European elections is exactly the sum being asked for to get the steel industry in this country up and running again.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Mon, 15 Apr 2019 09:53:52 GMT

[quote user="jimbomcgrimbo"]I have not seen a SINGLE report or forecast that doesn't state we will be financially worse off after leaving the EU. Even the Brexiters themselves have had to admit it now. Why on God's green earth would anybody STILL be supporting this? Why do people WANT to make my kid's generation poorer? [/quote]

I suspect that is largely because the authors of the reports want to remain, and also because they are not brave enough to stick their necks out and put forward a positive case (if you are a politician and you say that Brexit is all going to be milk and honey, and then it isn't, then you're screwed. But if you say we'll all going to hell in a handcart, and things actually work out OK, then you'll be forgiven by the electorate, because things are OK).

I was talking to a senior independent economist last summer, who said that on balance he favoured Brexit because we are facing a time of perhaps the greatest techno-socio change in history. Automation is going to change everything. He felt that those countries that are able to legislate quickly (as we would if we were outside the EU) will have a competitive advantage.

In my experience, decisions made by committee ALWAYS end up pandering to the lowest common denominator, which is why I would prefer to be outside the EU (I also think it is a fundamentally undemocratic organisation).

However, I am sure there will be short term pain, and I am not sure how painful it will be. That is why I voted remain last time around.

In short, I agree there will be short term pain, I disagree that it will necessarily make my (or your) children poorer. I believe the opposite.

If I was given a second vote, seeing how both the the EU and the British Government have behaved, I think i would now vote OUT!

RE: My comment about Brexit

James Colver Cert. Ed, RVN — Sat, 13 Apr 2019 21:10:13 GMT

I have not seen a SINGLE report or forecast that doesn't state we will be financially worse off after leaving the EU. Even the Brexiters themselves have had to admit it now. Why on God's green earth would anybody STILL be supporting this? Why do people WANT to make my kid's generation poorer?

It's happened almost exactly the way the remain camp said it would happen prior to the referendum - a complete mess, because there was no plan to begin with.

Best thing we can do in my opinion is rescind our notice to leave - cancel the whole thing completely then ask the people again once they know exactly what the implications are.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Arlo Guthrie — Fri, 12 Apr 2019 09:39:12 GMT

[quote user="Selena "]i voted leave, if i had the chance now i think i would vote stay. there wasn't enough info at the time.[/quote]

But I am not sure I think there is enough info now either. The truth is that nobody, even a trained economist, really knows what will happen when/if we leave.

[quote user="Sal the 1st"]these delays are costing money - a lot of money if we have to take part in EU Elections as a result of them (reported as a hundred million pounds).[/quote]

Absolutely agree, it's the uncertainty that is most damaging to our economy and to our reputation.

I think this australian reporter says it as it is:

www.youtube.com/watch

RE: My comment about Brexit

Sal the 1st — Thu, 11 Apr 2019 21:31:42 GMT

I would still vote to leave - these delays are costing money - a lot of money if we have to take part in EU Elections as a result of them (reported as a hundred million pounds). My solution now would to be call all the MP's in to parliament and shut the bloody door behind them - a lock in until they can come to some agreement. No time off, nobody gets out, no HOC restaurant - military ration packs (ratpaks I think are somehow very appropriate) . And once we have an agreement fire the whole rotten lot of them. If they can't reach agreement by Monday then its no deal and just get the hell out, no more stalling. It has gone on long enough.

RE: My comment about Brexit

Selena Carnell — Thu, 11 Apr 2019 20:30:54 GMT

i voted leave, if i had the chance now i think i would vote stay. there wasn't enough info at the time.